A unified wavelet-based modelling framework for non-linear system identification: the WANARX model structure

A new unified modelling framework based on the superposition of additive submodels, functional components, and wavelet decompositions is proposed for non-linear system identification. A non-linear model, which is often represented using a multivariate non-linear function, is initially decomposed into a number of functional components via the wellknown analysis of variance (ANOVA) expression, which can be viewed as a special form of the NARX (non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs) model for representing dynamic input–output systems. By expanding each functional component using wavelet decompositions including the regular lattice frame decomposition, wavelet series and multiresolution wavelet decompositions, the multivariate non-linear model can then be converted into a linear-in-theparameters problem, which can be solved using least-squares type methods. An efficient model structure determination approach based upon a forward orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm, which involves a stepwise orthogonalization of the regressors and a forward selection of the relevant model terms based on the error reduction ratio (ERR), is employed to solve the linear-in-the-parameters problem in the present study. The new modelling structure is referred to as a wavelet-based ANOVA decomposition of the NARX model or simply WANARX model, and can be applied to represent high-order and high dimensional non-linear systems

Generalised coherent point drift for group-wise registration of multi-dimensional point sets

In this paper we propose a probabilistic approach to group-wise registration of unstructured high-dimensional point sets. We focus on registration of generalised point sets which encapsulate both the positions of points on surface boundaries and corresponding normal vectors describing local surface geometry. Richer descriptions of shape can be especially valuable in applications involving complex and intricate variations in geometry, where spatial position alone is an unreliable descriptor for shape registration. A hybrid mixture model combining Student’s t and Von-Mises-Fisher distributions is proposed to model position and orientation components of the point sets, respectively. A group-wise rigid and non-rigid registration framework is then formulated on this basis. Two clinical data sets, comprising 27 brain ventricle and 15 heart shapes, were used to assess registration accuracy. Significant improvement in accuracy and anatomical validity of the estimated correspondences was achieved using the proposed approach, relative to state-of-the-art point set registration approaches, which consider spatial positions alone

Nonlinear tree growth dynamics predict resilience to disturbance

Following a disturbance, why does one tree survive while another dies? Physiological mechanisms may explain varying responses to disturbance between different tree species, but fewer studies have investigated conspecific variation in resilience to forest disturbance. We propose that a dynamic signal found in trees may provide clues to their post-disturbance fate. Specifically, linear versus nonlinear growth dynamics of a tree may be an indicator of its likelihood to survive a disturbance. Here, we investigate stands of red oak (Quercus rubra L.) that experienced disturbances in the form of drought and insect attack. Earlier work indicated that oaks dying during these disturbances had faster growth rates in their first years of life, but there was no obvious difference in canopy status, size, age, or microsite habitat between trees that survived and those that died. To investigate potential differences in growth dynamics between these trees, we quantified radial growth of individual trees and used two forecasting models to classify tree growth dynamics as linear or nonlinear. Trees were classified as healthy, declining, or dying based on crown cover, and dynamic patterns of growth were related to these health classifications. Contrary to expectations, we found healthy Q. rubra were significantly more likely to exhibit nonlinear growth dynamics relative to declining and dying trees. The drivers of this effect remain unclear, but nonlinear growth dynamics in healthy trees may represent an enhanced ability to benefit from resource pulses, in turn promoting greater resilience. Our work suggests that forecasting models offer a means of predicting tree survival during forest disturbances and thus represent an increasingly valuable tool as forest disturbances increase in frequency and severity

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

What are the barriers, facilitators and interventions targeting help-seeking behaviours for common mental health problems in adolescents? A systematic review

BACKGROUND: Increasing rates of mental health problems among adolescents are of concern. Teens who are most in need of mental health attention are reluctant to seek help. A better understanding of the help-seeking in this population is needed to overcome this gap. METHODS: Five databases were searched to identify the principal barriers, facilitators and interventions targeting help-seeking for common mental health problems in adolescents aged 10-19 years. The search was performed in June 2018 and updated in April 2019. Two independent screening processes were made using the eligibility criteria. Quality assessment of each study was performed, and findings summarised using a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Ninety studies meet the inclusion criteria for this review for barrier and facilitators (n = 54) and interventions (n = 36). Stigma and negative beliefs towards mental health services and professionals were the most cited barriers. Facilitators included previous positive experience with health services and mental health literacy. Most interventions were based on psychoeducation, which focused on general mental health knowledge, suicide and self-harm, stigma and depression. Other types of interventions included the use of multimedia and online tools, peer training and outreach initiatives. Overall, the quality of studies was low to medium and there was no general agreement regarding help-seeking definition and measurements. CONCLUSION: Most of the interventions took place in an educational setting however, it is important to consider adolescents outside the educational system. Encouraging help-seeking should come with the increased availability of mental health support for all adolescents in need, but this is still a major challenge for Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services. There is also a need to develop shared definitions, theoretical frameworks and higher methodological standards in research regarding help-seeking behaviours in adolescents. This will allow more consistency and generalisability of findings, improving the development of help-seeking interventions and ensuring timely access to mental health treatments